When will AGI or superintelligence arrive?
Nobody knows. Forecasts for AGI range from about 2030, given by some AI lab leaders, to the 2040s and later in expert surveys, and many researchers doubt it will arrive at all in the current approach. Forecasts depend heavily on who is asked and how AGI is defined.
The full answer
There is no reliable date. Published forecasts cluster in three groups:
- Lab leaders are the most aggressive. Several have said AGI could arrive around 2030 or sooner.
- Forecasting communities and prediction markets sit in between, with medians commonly in the 2030s.
- Surveys of AI researchers are more conservative, with medians commonly in the 2040s to 2060s, and a sizeable minority who think it is much further off or not achievable with current methods.
Treat these numbers carefully. The people closest to the technology also have commercial reasons to sound confident, forecasts have been revised both earlier and later, and the answer changes with the definition of AGI. Forecasts for superintelligence are even less certain because they depend on AGI first.
A useful habit: when you read a date, check who gave it, what they mean by AGI, and whether they have something to sell.
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